Geopolitical Risks

What we did

• Ingested timestamped wire reports, think-tank briefs, and MoD/DoD releases.
• Generated forecasting questions on cross-border military activity, sanctions, and alliance behavior.
• Labeled from public ground-truth trackers (Taiwan MND, ACLED, Treasury OFAC actions).
• Trained a specialized model on the outcome-labeled corpus.

Example datapoint

A sample training example — question, source, and outcome-derived label.

Read more

Papers, models, datasets, notebooks, and write-ups for this case study.

Blog post blog.lightningrod.ai

Using the Future to Train Prediction Models

Background on future-as-label training — the same approach applied to geopolitical events

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