Example prediction questions
The kinds of questions a model trained on your data can answer.
DATASET SEC risk signals
RL
Question
Will Northwind Logistics Inc. (NASDAQ: NWIN) face a Commission enforcement action within 12 months of the Feb 28, 2025 10-K disclosure of an informal revenue-recognition inquiry?
Question source
10-K risk factors Feb 28, 2025
Disclosure of ongoing informal inquiry related to revenue recognition policies
Label
Yes.
Type
binary
Confidence
Label source
SEC litigation release Nov 4, 2025
Commission orders cease-and-desist and civil penalty in accounting fraud matter
Key results
Benchmark comparisons against frontier models
SEC Risk Prediction: Brier Score, Skill, and Calibration
Fine-tuned Qwen3-32B achieves Brier Skill Score +11.6% with ECE of 0.029 across 6,109 SEC risk queries — 64.7% lower calibration error than GPT-5 (ECE 0.081). The model learns to distinguish boilerplate legal language from meaningful signals preceding adverse outcomes.
Explore
Primary write-ups and artifacts for this solution.