Example prediction questions
The kinds of questions a model trained on your data can answer.
DATASET Policy actions
RL
Question
Will the Jan 27, 2025 executive order threatening 25% tariffs on Canadian imports face a successful federal court injunction or vacatur within 90 days of signing?
Question source
New York Times Jan 27, 2025
Trump Threatens Canada With 25% Tariffs Over Border Security
Label
Yes.
Type
binary
Confidence
Label source
Reuters Apr 22, 2025
Federal judge enjoins enforcement of 25% Canadian import tariffs pending merits briefing
Key results
Benchmark comparisons against frontier models
Calibration on 682 Political Test Questions
Trump-Forecaster achieves lower Expected Calibration Error than GPT-5 in both context-aware (ECE 0.079 vs. 0.091) and context-free (ECE 0.164 vs. 0.191) settings — 13–14% better calibration, with the largest gains when no additional context is available.
Explore
Primary write-ups and artifacts for this solution.